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Water Crux MageTier 1
at Tabletop Village Store Championship
decks
1
(5.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
1-2-1
overall winrate
37.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
43.0%
avg ELO -4.4 per match
expected value
50.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1440
· median 1440
· range 1440–1440
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1077
Q1 1233
Q3 1355
1471
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 15.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 10.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 10.5% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 44.7% | -5.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 10.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 10.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Mage decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
